Emma Harden-Wolfson

Despite rapidly growing eligible populations and an expanding higher education base, there are indications of declining interest in university study in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

Kyrgyzstan’s population currently stands at 6.7 million, of whom 35% are aged 14-35. Most of this youth population lives in the capital Bishkek or second largest city, Osh. Over in Tajikistan, where the population has grown by 30% in the last 10 years to over 10 million, the youth population stands at somewhere between 30% and 40% depending on which ages you count with over 60% aged under 30.

The point is that these are young countries with decent (but not universal) high school completion rates, which should in principle make for full classrooms in the countries’ universities and higher education institutions.

Not so, according to two recent reports.

In Kyrgyzstan, the Ministry of Education announced a fifth round of university admissions in August, ostensibly to provide more opportunities to reach higher education but experts say that the demand for higher education just isn’t there. Universities still have vacant spots – even for government funded places. In Tajikistan, only half of all places had been filled just a month before the new academic year began in September. Despite population growth, the government says that fewer secondary school graduates are the reason for the vacancies.

In both countries, higher education admissions quotas have also been increased – and in Kyrgyzstan, they’ve been removed altogether.

Yet education expert Elmira Boronchieva believes that young people in Kyrgyzstan are more attracted to shorter, professional courses that lead to qualifications in areas such as IT where jobs are plentiful. Boronchieva points to the earning potential for programmers and the opportunities to work from home as motivational factors. She also believes that some youth prefer to work abroad.

Keneshbek Sainazarov, who advises the Kyrgyz Ministry of Education, seems a little less concerned. Opening up a fifth admissions round where there used to be three, he says, shows the same flexibility that universities have in, for example, allowing students to start either in the autumn or the winter. He also notes that more students are achieving the minimum required score on the national higher education admissions exam, 57% compared to 40-45% in previous years.

However, both Boronchieva and Sainazarov note that some of the issues might also be on the supply side. Teacher training, agriculture, mathematics, physics and chemistry – all subjects of high importance for national development – are under-recruiting for several reasons including poor career prospects and outdated teaching methods.

According to the National Testing Centre in Tajikistan, which administers that country’s university entrance exam, over 12,000 students did not show up to take the test this year. The chatter on social media suggests that this may be related to a new law on conscription and military service in Tajikistan. This requires students in military departments at universities to serve for a year, and the previous deferment of service for Master’s and PhD students has been removed.

The National Testing Centre refutes any allegation that the new law may behind falling student numbers, but does admit that the approach to mobilizing (graduated) students might not be consistent. Others have suggested that young men are being conscripted even when they are enrolled as students, which should not be the case.

In sum, this creates a curious conundrum for both countries where until now, access to higher education has been on a singularly upward trend. But perhaps the question is not whether there’s declining interest in higher education, but whether the issues arising now are more to do with a growing mismatch between demand and the way that supply is being managed at policy and institutional levels?